Dodgers, Yesterday and Today

One year ago the Angels were 51 – 59, and many analysts were rightly mocking their big spending sprees on the likes of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Mike Scioscia was ridiculed for how he managed his team, and many felt the game had passed him by. The only thing Angel fans could look forward to was watching the greatest player of the 21^st century.

Move forward one year and the Angels just might be the best team in baseball with a 65 -44 mark. Mike Trout is still the best player of the 21^st century, however his incredible production has been enhanced by new talent, somewhat comeback years from Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. Mike Scoscia is once again a “brilliant” manager.

The Angels have many of the old faces that Dodger fans recognize Kendrick, Aybar, Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, Weaver, CJ Wilson, but those old faces have been augmented by a plethora of new faces, so it is probably a good time to get a primer on who these Angels are.

1^st Base – Albert Pujols has bounced back from last year, but a recent slump has made his numbers rather pedestrian again. Overall Albert has an OPS+ of 127, but in his last fourteen games his OPS sits at .675. Albert has hit one home run in the last 28 days. So while he has 20 home runs on the year, he comes into this series without a home run since July 9^th. The 23 Million dollar 1^st baseman is already a bad deal. Is CJ Cron who plays for the minimum already a better hitter?

2^nd Base – Howie Kendick has now been the regular Angel second baseman since 2010, and has been playing for the Angels since 2006. Howie never won the batting title that some thought he’d achieve, but he does have a lifetime average of .291. He still has a ways to go to catch Bobby Grich, but he’s firmly ensconced as the second greatest second baseman in the history of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. This year he’s doing what he always does. Solid BA at .285, a smattering of stolen bases (12), an OPS+ above 100 (108), and on his way to playing over 140 games.

SS – Erick Aybar become the Angel starting SS one year before Kendrick in 2009. Much like Howie he had been around since 2006. While never wowing with the bat, Aybar has been consistent. These guys are like two pea’s in a pod. Never great, mostly good, always available. Also just like Howie, Erick Aybar is clearly the second best Shortstop in the history of the Angels. He won’t catch Jim Fregosi, no one will.

3^rd Base – David Freeze came over from the Cardinals last year and is experiencing his worst year since he came up in 2009. His OPS+ currently stands at just 93, 19 points below his career average of 112. At least he’s been consistently meh. His first half OPS was 669, his second OPS is 683.

C – Chris Ianetta and Hank Conger split this gig with Ianetta getting more games even though he’s the right hand hitter. Ianetta is having the best year of his career with an OPS+ of 129, driven by his first foray into the .270 BA area. Much like AJ Ellis his offensive contributions usually centered around his excellent walk rate, but unlike AJ, Chris also had a little more consistent pop. Hank Conger may be the wrong guy for the left hand hand platoon side. He’s a switch hitter who is getting almost exclusive abats against RHP and not doing much with it. He’s been particularly awful the last 28 days with a .570 OPS.

CF – Mike Trout is simply the greatest player of the 21^st century at the age of 20, 21, and 22. It is a matter of debate if he is also the greatest player of the 20^th century at the age of 20, 21, and 22. Many have said the same thing, but we are watching what 19 year Mickey Mantle would have been had he not torn up his knee because of a sprinkler in the 1951 World Series. I’d list all of Trout’s accomplishments by the age of 22, but trust me. They would just make you gag.

RF – Kole Calhoun – this guy must be the best RF in the game no one has heard of. All he’s done since taking over for a hurt Josh Hamilton in 2013 is hit. And Hit. Quick and dirty using OPS+ Kole Calhoun has been the second best hitting right field in the AL since he started getting full time at bats on July 28^th, 2013. He’s the bargain basement guy who simply needed a chance and has run with it.

LF – Josh Hamilton – If anyone thinks the Pujols contract was absurd given his age, don’t peek at what they Angels will be paying Josh Hamilton from 2015-2017. Let’s just say it averages just a tad under $30,000,000. And while Josh Hamilton has bounced back from a tough 2013, his season this year is still simply OK. His OPS+ is 128, but only seven bombs in 236 at bats.

DH – CJ Cron – 1^st round pick in 2011 didn’t really impress in the minors given his advanced age for the levels he was at, but since being brought up, he’s done exactly what all the other DH’s could not do. Hit, and hit for power. So far he’s basically been Mark Trumbo, lot of home runs per at bat, lot of K’s per at bat, very few walks.

Starting Pitching – The Dodgers will miss Jeff Weaver but get to see Garrett Richards, Hector Santiago, Matt Shoemake, and C J Wilson.

Garrett Richards has kind of blown the roof off his suspected ceiling this year. I’ve heard talk of Cy Young contention which might be overstating his season, yet Garret Richard is clearly the ace of this team. From his 2.74 ERA, 11 – 4 record, 2.71 FIP, 8.9 K/bb ratio, 2.9 BB/ration, this is clearly an elite pitcher in 2014. For a guy who was the fifth starter entering the season, what a god’s send for the Angels.

Hector Santiago came over from the White Sox when the Angels sent Mark Trumbo to the Diamondbacks. Hector was supposed to be a vital part of the rotation but he was terrible in April, and was removed after his seventh start. He was sent to the minors for a few weeks, and came back to make some spot starts when Skaggs was hurt. Got to stick around when Wilson was hurt. Skaggs is hurt again so Hector gets this start. He’s dropped his ERA from over 5.00 to 3.76 since being demoted due to good work in the bullpen, and some decent starts. Hector has not pitched into the 6^th inning but one time since June 10^th, so even if he’s effective don’t expect him to be pitching in the 6^th inning.

Matt Shoemaker – Life saver is what they should be calling him. When Hector Santiago was shitting the bed, when Skaggs kept getting hurt, when CJ Wilson got hurt, the crops were slim, and unlike the Dodgers, the Angels ignored Matt’s PCL numbers and brought him up, and he may never leave. Matt has not been great, but for a fifth starter on a potent offense he gives them a chance to win every game, and thus has a 9 – 3 record. Matt has a dynamite 5.20 SO/W ratio, so even though he gives up more hits per IP, his WHIP is still a respectable 1.216. Matt has made 12 starts and his 8 – 2 in those 12 starts. About those PCL starts. Five starts, 6.31 ERA, 25 IP, 34 hits, 1.675 WHIP.

CJ Wilson – who knows how this start is going to go. Wilson came off the DL on Saturday and didn’t last two innings. Is he still hurt? Rusty? Even before he hit the DL he wasn’t exactly vintage Wilson. Since June 24^th Wilson had made five starts, and has given up 25 earned runs in 18 IP. Yikes

Bullpen – once a weakness the Angels can now boast Huston Street, Joe Smith, Jason Grilli, and Kevin Jepsen. Jepsen hasn’t given up an earned run since June 21^st. During that time 19 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER, 5 walks, 21 K’s.

The Giants invade the Ravine with a different type of team compared to the teams that won two of the last four World Series. With the decline of previous aces Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, no longer is pitching at the forefront of the Giants success. If the Giants are to contend in 2014 it will be on the backs of what could be their most potent offense in years led by Posey/Belt/Pence/Panda/Pagan.

Last year I picked them 3^rd coming off of their World Championship season, with the current injuries hitting Arizona/Padres I can see 2^nd place for them this year.

1^st Base – Brandon Belt went unnoticed by many, but by the end of 2013 he was as good an offensive 1^st baseman as Freddie Freeman. Freddie Freeman was rewarded with a top five MVP vote, and a huge contract. Brandon Belt was rewarded with most Dodger fans making fun of his spring training chemistry comment. With Belt entering his 26 year old season expect more of the same from 2013 where his OPS+ of 142 ranked fourth among NL 1^st baseman. Maybe a little more power as he has already hit 3 home runs in 2014.

2^nd Base –this will be the Giants biggest bugaboo for most of 2014 unless they find a replacement. Scutaro is now 38, and already hurt. The back up is Joaquin Arias or Hicks. Scutaro has done an incredible job since showing up at the back end of 2012 to help lead the Giants to their 2^nd world championship, but his ship should have sailed. Deals with the devil have a shelf life, and his should have expired last year.

SS – Brandon Crawford holds down shortstop by playing solid defense with some hot offensive streaks thrown in. He is no longer the offensive hole he was at the start of his career. Each season he has shown growth with an OPS+ climb of 67 to 86 to 96. The Giants would do well to find him a right handed platoon partner as he simply can’t hit left handed pitchers at all with a career OPS of .578 against lefties.

3^rd – The Panda will always be made fun of because of his weight, but when he swings the bat, good things happen. He’s only 27 and has now accumulated almost 3000 plate appearances with a career OPS+ of 126. How many NL 3^rd baseman have an OPS+ higher than 125 with 3000 plate appearances this century? One – David Wright. So laugh if you want but the Panda can hit at a position not many seem to be able to do so anymore.

C –The franchise player is of course Buster Posey. He’s such an impact player; MLB changed the game just because of him. There is little doubt he’s the best offensive catcher in baseball.

RF – Hunter Pence is the goofiest great player you will ever get to see play MLB. He does not do anything easily but does everything well. He’s never been the best right fielder, but he’s always been one of the top five, year in and year out.

CF – Angel Pagan is why you can’t laugh too hard at the Zach Wheeler for Carlos Beltran trade. The Giants went for all the marbles and lost big, but the following winter they fleeced the Mets out of Angel Pagan for someone no one longer in baseball. So I look at it like this – Pagan / Beltran for Wheeler/ Andres Torres. That looks better, a quality starting CF for a young pitching prospect. At least if I was a Giant fan that is how I’d look at it. Doesn’t hurt so much. Pagan is good; it was an awful trade by the Mets even at the time. Problem for Pagan is staying healthy, and the Giants need him for 500 at bats not 300 if they want to make hay in the West.

LF – Ok, this could also be a bugaboo. Mike Morse is probably not the answer. But Gregor Blanco surely was not the answer. The Giants should have done a better job of dealing with the LF problem, and because they didn’t, they will probably be fighting for 3^rd place.

Bumgarner is good, and might be great, but he’s going to need to be brilliant to carry the staff. Tim Hudson is a big name, but he’s now 38. RyanVogelsongs pixie dust finally wore out, and I’m not expecting much of a change in 2014. The Giants gave a ton of money hoping a different Tim Lincecum is going to show up in 2014, or they felt the 2013 version was worth 17 million. Is Matt Cain entering his decline phase or was 2013 simply an aberration where his good luck finally hit a snag? I have no idea. He seemed to be close to the same Matt Cain in the second half but not close enough to erase the doubts that he’s seen his peak.

Diehard Dodger fan Sergio Romo has done a fantastic job since taking over as the closer for Brian Wilson. Since closer jobs are not long running, I would expect his to be coming to an end.

The Giants should have enough to battle for second place. I could see them finishing anywhere from 2^nd – 4^th. They are the only team in the West who has not lost a frontline starter yet. That could be the difference for them. As with most teams if everything breaks right, great things could happen. Belt might have the talent to be a MVP candidate. Posey is already a perennial MVP candidate. Can this be the year Bumgarner is in the Cy Young conversation?