On August 4th I made my first NFBC update and noted I was in 1st place in my league and 18th place overall. Over the last 18 days I’ve managed to get as close as 9th in the overall, but currently sit at 13th place after Kershaw’s masterpiece last night. Matt Kemp is no longer pulling his weight but Clayton sure is.
I wanted to make this post because I have a huge weekend coming up. The Marlins are headed to Colorado and I’m able to start an all Marlin outfield this weekend with Stanton / Ozuna / Yelich. While I expect them to do some serious work against the Rockie rotation I’m very nervous about some big gambles I’m taking in the pitching department.
Over the last two weeks I’ve acquired Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar with via FAAB and I’m starting both of them this weekend against the Astros. I doubt any of the teams in front of me are doing the same thing so I may be sinking or swimming with these picks.
I still have plenty of run left in WHIP /ERA / SB / Runs while I’m near the top in HR / RBI so I’ve sat Matt Kemp this weekend as his August has been very ordinary and I can’t have ordinary right now.
Here’s to hoping it looks better come Monday
Snapshot of the League: $6200 Prize
| Rank | Team | Batting Pts | Pitching Pts | Overall Pts | Change |
| 1 | MoustacheBall | 61.0 | 56.0 | 117.0 | -1.0 |
| 2 | The Governor | 55.5 | 52.5 | 108.0 | -0.5 |
| 3 | Zefurs || LV2 | 53.0 | 49.5 | 102.5 | -1.5 |
| 4 | Seeing Doubles | 46.0 | 54.0 | 100.0 | +3.5 |
| 5 | CC’s Desperados | 54.0 | 43.5 | 97.5 | -0.5 |
| 6 | Four Headed Monster | 58.5 | 26.0 | 84.5 | -0.5 |
| 7 | DonnieBaseball ME | 36.0 | 46.0 | 82.0 | -3.0 |
| 8 | Tiger Slappy | 47.0 | 33.5 | 80.5 | -1.5 |
| 9 | Ozville Flying Monkeys | 31.0 | 48.0 | 79.0 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Welcome to Stevieland | 41.5 | 37.0 | 78.5 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Team Izenstark | 32.0 | 35.0 | 67.0 | +4.5 |
| 12 | Team Cohan | 27.0 | 38.0 | 65.0 | -1.5 |
| 13 | Bama & Madcow | 27.5 | 34.0 | 61.5 | -2.0 |
| 14 | Mudhens | 20.0 | 36.0 | 56.0 | +0.5 |
| 15 | Miami Mac | 10.0 | 11.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
Snapshot of the Overall (420 teams) – $125,000 Prize
The Mets have not had a winning season since 2008, but this could be the last year you can say that. They have several pitching prospects bubbling in AAA, and the major league team is stocked as well with youth and experience. When you look at who will be in the 2015 rotation you have all these pitchers to choose from: (ages are for 2015)
- 42-year-old Bartolo Colon – probably gets moved this winter, shocking he has not been moved this summer. Bartolo even at his advanced age simply gets the job done. As a fifth starter he is more than serviceable.
- 29-year-old Dillon Gee – another decent back-end rotation piece.
- 28-year-old Jonathan Niese – a tad above the average crowd, Niese would fit right in at back-end of rotation
- 27-year-old Jacob deGrom – I have no idea what to make of deGrom. Pitching as a 26 year old rookie he has simply been excellent in sixteen starts and neither do Met fans
- 25-year-old 2013 phenom Matt Harvey might be ready to give Jose Fernandez a run for best young right-handed pitcher in the game. Certainly the potential to be the Met ace
- 25-year-old Zack Wheeler – 2.12 in his last 10 starts, with OPS against of only .641. 2015 is when the Giants really feel the sting of trading Zack for Beltran. Wheeler has the stuff to be the Matt Cain to Matt Harvey.
- 24-year-old Rafael Montero – dabbled briefly so far in the bigs with mixed results. Is expected to be an option for the rotation in 2015. Montero is ranked as the 79th best prospect.
- 22-year-old Noah Syndergaard – considered the cream of the Met crop, he has struggled in 2014 with injuries and inconsistency. Probably not ready for prime time but when he is, he does have the stuff be a front of the line pitcher. Currently rotowire has him ranked as the 12th best prospect.
Finally 25-year-old Jennry Mejia who is currently serving as the Met closer. Parnell will be back next year, and maybe Mejia will head back into the rotation. He has been fighting a hernia this summer so the smaller load of working as a closer has allowed him to continue pitching. He has the repertoire of a starter, so I would not be shocked if he finds himself back into someone’s rotation.
It will be interesting a year from now to see how the Met rotation has shaken out.
Lets take a look at the rest of the team.
1st base – Lucas Duda was finally given the job full-time when the Mets pulled the plug on the Ike Davis era. Duda has rewarded the Mets with an outstanding season by simply doing what he does. Provide power and patience. Duda now has 23 dingers along with 54 walks.
2nd base – Daniel Murphy has had an above average season at 2nd base with a 119 OPS+, and currently leads the NL in hits with 154, but hey he’s no Justin Turner:)
SS – Mets are going with 22-year-old Wilmer Flores to see what he’s got. So far Wilmer is not showing much but I think with more playing time the hits will start to come. The real question for Wilmer is can he play SS? I don’t think the question is can he hit enough to play SS but maybe that is a valid question.
3rd – David Wright is still the man but now he’s the old man. The 31-year-old Wright has seen his power go off a Votto cliff this year with only eight boom booms so far. To compete in 2015, David Wright will need to make a big comeback from his current depths.
C – Travis d’Arnaud – was the part of the prize in the RA Dickey deal. On May 13th his .588 OPS was sent back to AAA. Within weeks he got his swing straightened out and has put up a .732 OPS since returning. In today’s offensive nadir, that will play just nicely.
RF – Curtis Granderson has been terrible, and that terrible turns to horrible when talking about August. How about an August OPS of .432. That is right, .432.
CF – Four different Mets have played CF in August but luckily for defensive fans, Lagares gets the most burn. None of them can hit, so might as well go with the guy who can pick it.
LF – Yuck and his cronies play here.
OK
after doing the review the Mets needs some serious OF redo if they expect to compete next year. Serious redo.
Eric Stephen can some times be annoyingly johnny on the spot, as he proved once again yesterday. Once again Eric showed the knack of writing the right post at the right time. Yesterday Eric wrote a lengthy piece on the perceived Dodgers trouble to win games they are trailing in. To be exact, before last night they were 0 – 46 trailing in the 7th. Eric detailed all this exhaustively, and came to the following conclusion:
For the most part, trailing after seven innings is a terrible situation anyway. NL teams are 71-764 in those situations, an .085 winning percentage. That the Dodgers haven’t yet won a single game in that situation seems more a fluke than some sort of character flaw.
If you were at the game it was easy to expect a 1 – 0 loss once the Padres put the one on the board. The scoreboard all ready had two 1 – 0 losses up on the board as offense for all of MLB was missing on this Thursday. The Dodger offense showed little signs of being able to even get on base much less score a measly run. As I watched the game I mentioned the fact they were 0 – 46 to my wife and the cast around us. I also said not to worry that the author of the study had concluded it was just a “fluke”. A few batters later Justin Turner went Boom Boom, and one fan among us turned to me and as we high-fived exclaimed
“Fluke This”
Hell yeah, what a game.
My last three games in those seats:
- Juan Uribe home run to send the Braves home in the 2013 postseason
- Matt Kemp going yard twice several weeks ago against the same Braves
- Justin Turner doing his magic last night
I guess I should go more often
Since being recalled on Aug 7th, Pedro Baez the failed 3rd base prospect turned relief pitcher has appeared in five games without allowing an earned run. That run includes eight scoreless innings, twice going two innings. Those scoreless innings looks sweet but strangely enough the fireballing Baez has only struck out four batters in those eight innings. According to fangraphs, Baez features a fast ball at 96, a slider around 87, and a 88 MPH change up. So far this mix of stuff is doing sweet work for the Dodgers. With the Dodger rotation not going beyond six innings other than Clayton, the ability to pitch mulitple shutdown innings has been a huge boost to the Dodger bullpen.
I’ve been writing about Pedro Baez since 2008 in truebluela prospect reports, but it was not until January 11th, 2011 at a Dodger prospect workout that I saw him for the first time. At the time Baez was still a 3rd baseman, and he stood out above the other prospects with his athletic build. Even then the talk was about his arm but it took a few more years before the Dodgers moved him off of 3rd base to the mound. He was not the immediate success that Kenley Jansen was but so far in August, 2014 he is exactly what the doctor ordered.
MLB Standing snapshot via Baseball Ref on Aug 21st, 2014
- Orioles are not only in first place they are in first place by nine games. Surprisingly the Orioles had a ten game lead as recently as July 12th, 2012. I thought I was going to have to go back 20 years to find the last time they had at least a nine game lead. (Sept 6th, 1997 to be exact)
- AL East at the beginning of the year looked like a division that could have five teams with winning records. With the way the Yankees are trending, they may only have two, and not the two anyone would have bet on, Baltimore and Toronto.
- KC leading the AL Central on August 20th? When was the last time the fine folk from KC could make that claim? Looks like Aug 19th, 2003, they lost on the 20th, and never led again.
- Angels have blown by the A’s by virtue of their 8 – 2 run, in conjunction with the A’s going 2 – 8. I guess Lester and Smargy weren’t the right answer to the question. Losing Richards however should change the equation over the next six weeks since the Angels had already lost Skaggs, and don’t seem to have an answer for losing their ace.
- Best team in the NL have won nine in a row and taken a commanding seven game lead over the Braves. They get to beat up on the Giants this weekend at home, but then start a nine game road trip that ends at the Ravine for what should be a precursor to who will represent the NL in the World Series.
- Marlins keep hanging around the wild card, and how much fun will this weekend by when Stanton/Yelich/Ozuna and company invade Colorado with that rotation in shambles.
- Brewers don’t get to play the Dodgers anymore so they have come back to earth, but still have a 1.5 game lead on the Cardinals. Pirates lost seven in a row without their MVP but he’s back, Cole is back and they snapped the snide at seven with a lucky win over the Braves when the Upton brothers could not communicate on a gapper. Once again the Wild Card is going to be crazy time.
- The Padres have taken control of 3rd place with a seven game lead on the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers have seen their lead drop to three games but not because the Giants are winning. With the Giants going to Washington, expect the Giant losing ways to continue. Dodgers get the Mets. The lead should grow.
- Prospect Jose De Leon hurled a game score gem of 78 last night. In what might have been the best minor league game pitched all season, De Leon hurled six shutout innings, struck out fourteen, nary a walk, only four hits. In two starts since being promoted to the Loons of the Midwest League, De Leon has struck out twenty-one without a single walk in only twelve innings. A tad incredible.
- Carl Crawford is hot hot hot with sixteen hits in his last eight starts, hitting a cool .500 over his last nine games. He has also quietly stolen nineteen out of twenty-three base attempts which harken back to his hey day with the Rays.
- Dodger discount hurlers have now made multiple starts without embarrassing anyone
- Prospect Scott Schebler slugged his Southern league leading 25th home run
- Uber prospect Corey Seager is toying with AA with a quintuple stat line of 357 /.375/.531/.906/.423
- Future Dodger backup catcher Fedex has hit eleven home runs in only 219 plate appearances since being demoted to AAA in June
- If Grienke cannot go on Thursday that would leave temporarily leave Kershaw as the last man standing with Ryu on the DL, Beckett on the DL and gone, and Haren blowing in the wind. Luckily I was able to use the word temporarily.
I’ve been itching to write about the Padres for a while because who the hell are these guys? Ever since they traded Chase Headley the Padres have gone 16 – 10 which is how they are currently in 3rd place. The team has so many new names it will be a revelation to myself, and you who they are.
1st Base – Yonder Alonzo came back from his first injury, got hot for a week, and then suffered a season ending injury so he be gone. In his place are Tommy Medica and Jake Goebbert. Goebbert and Gyorko what a combo on the right side when they start together. Both Medica and Goebbert are 26-year-old rookies without much of a pedigree. It helps that one is right-handed and the other left-handed (Goebbert). Both have actually hit the ball well in limited time so far. Medica has an OPS+ of 115, while Goebbert is sitting at 127. Medica has done his damage in 200 plate appearances so he has been getting plenty of burn. Goebbert basically had last week to work with when Yonder went missing and so far his come up big.
2nd Base – Gyorko is finally back, and is finally hitting like the jerk who played 2nd base in 2013. For most of 2014 Gyorko was probably the worst offensive starter in baseball, but since returning from the DL on July 28th, he has an OPS of .867 including a five RBI game on Saturday.
SS – With Everth Cabrera on the DL, Alexi Amarista is manning SS most of the time. And yes he still can’t hit, even a little.
3rd – Yangervis Solarte was the prize in the Chase Headley deal, and while I did not think he was much of a prize he has done solid work for the Padres. In the beginning he played 2nd while Gyorko was hurt but has now moved over to 3rd base. As a Padre he has been showing excellent OB skills (.379) and some surprising power with three home runs in 86 at bats.
C – Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera share this spot and compared to the Dodgers offensive catchers they could be considered juggernauts with an OPS+ of 94 and 110 respectively.
LF – Seth Smith is having a monstrous year. Just monstrous. OPS+ of 160 ranks among the elite of the NL. Also 38 points then his best season. I could go on but I won’t.
CF – Abraham Almonte came over in the Denorfia trade. He was the Mariner starting CF on opening day this year, and is now the Padre CF while Maybin wonders why his career never followed the path of fellow 2005 draftees like Tulo, Braun, and Cutch.
RF – Rymer Liriano – the Padres best position prospect came up last week and possesses power and speed. Rymer missed all of 2013 so he fell off the prospect radar but has moved up three level this year from AA to AAA to the major leagues. It has been a long wait for Padre fans to get a look at Rymer, he was signed with much fanfare back in 2007.
How about that 2005 draft – holy hell some great players were drafted that year.
Year Rnd OvPck Tm Name Pos WAR Type 2005 1 1 Diamondbacks Justin Upton(minors) SS 20.2 HS 2005 1 2 Royals Alex Gordon(minors) 3B 27.2 4Yr 2005 1 4 Nationals Ryan Zimmerman(minors) 3B 34.5 4Yr 2005 1 5 Brewers Ryan Braun(minors) 3B 36.8 4Yr 2005 1 7 Rockies Troy Tulowitzki(minors) SS 37.8 4Yr 2005 1 10 Tigers Cameron Maybin(minors) OF 9.0 HS 2005 1 11 Pirates Andrew McCutchen(minors) OF 31.7 HS 2005 1 12 Reds Jay Bruce(minors) OF 15.3 HS 2005 1 23 Red Sox via Angels *Jacoby Ellsbury(minors) OF 23.5 4Yr 2005 1 25 Twins Matt Garza(minors) RHP 14.9 4Yr 2005 1 28 Cardinals via Red Sox *Colby Rasmus(minors) OF 12.9 HS 2005 1s 42 Red Sox *Clay Buchholz(minors) RHP 13.0 JC 2005 1s 45 Red Sox *Jed Lowrie(minors) 2B 8.2 4Yr
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/19/2014.
Pederson on the season is hitting .302/.425/.568 with 27 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 105 games for the Isotopes. With 19 games remaining in the minor league season, he has a good chance at becoming the first Pacific Coast League player in 80 years to finish with 30 home runs and 30 steals in the same season.
Eric wrote that on Aug 13th, on Aug 18th, Joc blasted his 30th home run. Joc currently leads the PCL in home runs with his 30 home runs. Adam Duvall has 26 but is currently in the major leagues so Joc would appear to be a shoe-in to win the PCL home run crown since it does not appear likely that Dodgers will be promoting him before the Sept callups.
I noted yesterday how Scott Schebler is leading the Southern League in home runs with his 25. With only two weeks left in the year Scott does not have much competition, so I feel comfortable in saying that Joc Pederson and Scott Schebler will lead their respective leagues in home runs.
Which left me wondering has this ever been done? Two Dodger prospects leading their respective leagues in home runs? Not talking John Lindsey types but actual 25 and under prospects. It isn’t easy to do, for one you need to stay in the same league for most of the year, and usually noted prospects get promoted when they are dominating a league. Joc was blocked at the major league level by the under achieving over paid left fielders currently inhabiting the major league roster. It is a little more curious why Schebler was allowed to stay in AA all year. He’s not a CF by trade so he was not blocked by Joc.
But wait, we aren’t done yet.
Justin Chigbogu (say that three times fast) is also leading the Pioneer league in home runs with 16. His main competition is Aristides Aquino who has 14 so we can’t claim him the winner just yet.
Check back in two weeks and maybe the Dodgers will have three minor league home run champions that are all considered prospects.
Yesterday Scott Schebler hit his 25th home run which leads the Southern League thanks to Kris Bryant being promoted to AAA many weeks ago. Schebler is still going relatively unnoticed among the prospect intelligentsia, but the rotisserie world is taking notice. Jesse Siegel the Rotowire minor league columnist commented on Schebler this weekend during his Upgrade spot:
Scott Schebler, OF, LAD – Schebler has been on fire lately for Double-A Chattanooga. The 23-year-old outfielder is hitting .324 with six home runs, 12 RBI and one steal over his last 10 games for the Lookouts. That brings his overall numbers to .282/.365/.557 with 24 home runs, 65 RBI and 10 steals through 116 games. The Dodgers still have a huge glut of outfielders at the big-league level, as evidenced by the fact that stud prospect Joc Pederson has remained at Triple-A for the entire season despite fantastic statistics. Schebler wasn’t making it to the majors this season anyway, though, and perhaps this offseason the Dodgers will unload the likes of Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and even Matt Kemp. With the outfield talent coming through the minors, Los Angeles might be able to afford such a cost-cutting move without any loss of production.
I thought I’d check in on Scott via Andrew Grant’s excellent minor league central site and use his leaderboards to do some research. I knew Schebler lead the Southern League in home runs, but I wanted to see how he stacked up age wise against his competition. One thing stood out for me. Jake Lamb and Scott Schebler are the exact same baseball age at 23. 67. Jake Lamb was promoted two weeks ago to be the Diamondbacks starting 3rd baseman. Lamb had the highest wOBA in the Southern League at .433, but his BABIP was sitting at .389. Schebler has an wOBA of .403 but with a more reasonable BABIP of only .304. With an ISO of .270 a full 40 points higher than Lamb, Schebler would seem to be the better hitting prospect.
So I’ll be watching to see how Jake Lamb does against major league pitching, and maybe just maybe, the prospect intelligentsia should start taking Schebler a little more seriously.
It took two days to complete the 21 inning marathon. The game was started on August 17th, and halted after 17 innings, tied at 1. It was completed on August 18th, when Dusty Baker in his ninth at bats hit a sacrifice fly to score Steve Sax who had doubled earlier in the inning. The Dodgers used eight pitchers, and six of those pitchers went multiple innings. Jerry Ruess came into to pitch the 18th on August 18th and pitched four shutout innings for the victory.
Dusty Baker remembers this game well:
That would be noteworthy enough, but that 21-inning game also featured some creative managerial moves from the Dodgers’ Tommy Lasorda — even if it was out of necessity. In the 20th inning, Dodger third baseman Ron Cey was ejected by umpire Dave Pallone after he was picked off. Out of position players, Lasorda moved Pedro Guerrero from right field to third base and put pitcher Fernando Valenzuela in right field, while Baker stayed in left field.
“Lasorda put Fernando in left against a left-handed hitter and then I’d move for a right-handed hitter,” Baker said on Wednesday. “That was crazy. It was like running sprints during the game, because the umpires were like, ‘c’mon, c’mon, c’mon.’ I was like, ‘damn dude, I just got over here.’”
After Ryne Sandberg struck out, Larry Bowa hit the ball to right and was retired by Valenzuela for the second out of the inning. Then Baker moved to right field as Reuss faced the left-handed hitting Bill Buckner and Leon Durham. In the 21st inning, Bob Welch replaced Valenzuela in left field as Reuss faced Cubs pitcher Jerry Ruess. Baker and Welch switch positions with Jody Davis at the plate and then again when Steve Henderson grounded out to second to end the game.
Baker remembered going 1 for 9, but in reality he was 1 for 8 with a walk. He didn’t play in the second game.
Phil Gurnee
Dodgers, Yesterday and Today 